National League projections were released before American League projections last week. Gabriel Burns is a general assignment reporter and features writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. I think with 1-2 more consistent elite seasons maybe. because if so that may be why it's so high for him, the only other thing I can think of is that he finished last season very strong so maybe the projection is seeing more of the post all-star game Fried than the pre all-star game Fried, New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast, The subreddit for the bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players. The ZiPS projection from right before Opening Day also had New York with a 91-71 record. Fulton judge: Alternate GOP electors must honor subpoenas to testify, Braves' 2021 NL East title may have been the most impressive, Braves defeat Astros to win 2021 World Series title, The Braves, meanwhile, arent sure if theyll retain their best player, Kirby Smart, Georgia finalize $112.5M contract extension, Unflappable Jimbo Fisher caps off lively SEC Media Days, Social media reaction to Kirby Smarts contract extension, Clemson players have fondness, high hopes for Georgia Techs Tchio, Phommachanh, Braves better than last year but need more pitching to repeat, Braves return to action on verge of reaching 2 million in attendance, Brian Snitkers remarkable story continues at All-Star game, AJC Podcast: What you need to know about Georgias abortion law, Back from the brink: Tiran Jackson learns to harness power of resilience after tragedy, How Georgias top candidates raised their campaign cash. We obviously know none of this came true, and all projections should be taken with a grain of salt. Theyre followed by the Reds (80), Cubs (76) and Pirates (68). I'm excited for him to develop but seems early. I'm under the impression he's a mid/late season call up for the bench. The Braves won 88 games, going on to win the World Series, while the Mets cratered in the second half and won only 77 games. Last year he threw 145.1 innings between the regular and postseason, which was the most of his professional career. And its become an annual tradition for those projections to underestimate the Atlanta Braves. The Padres went down in flames last season, but the talent is there for a quick turnaround. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. The DH should only help him stay in the lineup, and wherever he ends up playing in 2022 Im leaning towards the Braves as long as hes healthy, hell be in the lineup. Looking at how the club is currently constructed, that seems reasonable since there are still holes to plug and depth to fill in before New York takes the field this season. FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborski: As I expected when discussing Atlantas projections, the Braves show up in ZiPS as a mild favorite, even with the baked-in assumption that Freddie Freeman will depart in free agency. Not sure exactly how ZiPS handles injuries. So, as a Braves fan, Im feeling really good about the 2022 season. Although the division boasted three losing teams with two of them winning fewer than 70 games last season, NL East teams seem to always beat up on one another. All three projections had the Mets winning the division, with the pre-Opening Day ZiPS projections predicting a tie with the Atlanta Braves. FanGraphs released its highly anticipated ZiPS projections last week, a model it uses to predict the MLB standings. FanGraphs believes the Padres rebound under new manager Bob Melvin, leaping from a disappointing 79-win campaign to 90 victories. ZiPS uses multi-year statistics, with more recent seasons weighted more heavily. America's Pastime. Copyright 2005 - 2022 Metsmerized Online. 7-8 WAR projections are really rare. Im assuming they believe he will put together a more rounded season. ZiPS has Braves looking pretty good for 2022, Atlanta Braves 2022 Draft Pick Signing Tracker, The 2022 MLB Draft is over and the only thing left to do is see which draftees the Braves can sign, Braves News: State of the Roster, draft pick signing tracker, more, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/, Where the Braves pitching staff stands heading into the second half, Starting Nine: Will Ronald Acua Jr. catch fire? The Braves are currently projected to win the division with 90 victories, while the Washington Nationals are projected to finish in the basement with 75 wins. Because January 6th wasn't the end of the story, January 6th was just a practice run.

Follow Will Be Wild wherever you get your podcasts, or you can listen early on Amazon Music or early and ad-free by subscribing to Wondery Plus in Apple Podcasts or the Wondery app.

Miami has a batch of promising young pitching and has steadily improved its offense. PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 05: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves in action during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 5, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. If Freeman signs elsewhere a more realistic proposition than any of us wouldve imagined a year ago theyll need to address first base. Through in-depth stories from a wide range of characters from people who tried to stop the attack to those who took part hosts Andrea Bernstein and Ilya Marritz explore the ongoing effort to bring autocracy to America, the lasting damage that effort is doing to our democracy, and the fate of our attempts to combat those anti-democratic forces. Even though it looks like were nowhere close to getting MLB players on fields again, this was just the shot of offseason normalcy I was looking for. So, these projections are saying the Braves are expected to win the NL East, even if Freddie Freeman isnt on the roster. 2022 Audacy, Inc. All rights reserved. The Mets already have had a busy offseason, hiring respected manager Buck Showalter and a plethora of productive veterans, including starting pitcher Max Scherzer, outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha, and infielder Eduardo Escobar. Too low? The White Sox are the only club expected to finish with a winning record, while the NL East is projected to have four with at least 80 wins and three finishing above .500. In case you are unfamiliar with how the ZiPS projections work, thats explained in detail here. Change), You are commenting using your Facebook account. It comes out to roughly 6 WAR. There arent too many surprises if youve followed the Braves and their production over the last few years, but its still kind of cool to add up the various WAR totals on the handy ballpark graphic in the aforementioned post and easily clear 40 WAR, even without Freddie Freeman. (LogOut/ But arent we all just looking for Braves and MLB content to discuss? The big difference between these two divisions, though? Learn more about Reddits use of cookies.

document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ). After years of helping each other improve recipes, solve cooking conundrums, and come up with delicious new ideas, theyve become experts in the kitchen and beyond. In other parts of the NL, FanGraphs has the Cardinals winning the Central with 89 victories. They gave a lot of really good pitchers less WAR: Wheeler 4.0, Nola 3.7, Eovaldi 3.8, Sale 3.6, Scherzer 4.3, Alcantara 4.4, Robbie Ray 3.8, Gausman 4.3, Berrios 3.8, Musgrove 3.7, Snell 3.0, Darvish 2.6, Flaherty 3.3, Wainright 2.4, Giollito 4.4, Lynn 3.2, Bassitt 3.4, Manea 3.3, Montas 3.6, Morton 3.9, Urias 4.4, Gallen 3.1, E.Rodriquez 4.0, Rogers 3.4, Lopez 3.2, Wood 3.0, Cease 3.0, Ryu 3.6, Manoah 3.2, Stroman 4.0, Miley 2.8, Mahle 3.6, S.Gray 3.8. Regardless, theyll probably add an outfielder, perhaps one of their July acquisitions from last summer Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario and/or Jorge Soler or another veteran. That projected difference of 15 wins between first and last place is among the smallest in baseball. The only division with a smaller differential is the AL Central the Chicago White Sox are projected for 88 wins and the Kansas City Royals currently have a projection of 74 victories. The Mets have put together a nice offseason so far, but theres still a job to finish. The Braves will win the National League East for the fifth consecutive year if FanGraphs initial ZiPS projections prove accurate. Matt is a college counselor by day and baseball writer by night. If this projection is accurate, itd be a substantial turnaround for New York after finishing 77-85 in 2021. But essentially its a computer-generated system that is estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players. The Braves, meanwhile, arent sure if theyll retain their best player. Zips has vindicated my Spencer Strider hype. A delayed Spring Training could mess him up from getting stretched out to make such a jump. I can understand why some of these numbers are so low for Dansby based on his history. Even if the Phillies continue hovering in the .500 range, the Mets should be more threatening, and the Marlins certainly should be better. Thats why Id tend to take the under on innings pitched and strikeouts. And if were looking at whether those results would be good enough to play October baseball, recent history says theyd have a shot. Szymborski did say that while these are the current projections, the offseason is not near being over from a roster acquisition standpoint like it would typically be at the beginning of February. The team still has several All-Star-caliber regulars and a solid rotation headlined by Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Ian Anderson. Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! You'll find him writing about MLB, NFL, NBA, college football and other Atlanta-centric happenings. 111 ERA+ over 104 innings would be a great season from essentially a two-pitch pitcher. Pretty fair numbers for Fried; although, Id love to see him eclipse 175 innings and get his K/9 over 9.

The Mets are currently tabbed as an 88-74 club, finishing second in the NL East to the Braves. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer.

The Braves have won the NL East each of the last four years, so whatever happens, one of the other members will have to knock them off.

Theyre very high on Huascar Ynoa and go as far as to say he projects to be one of the best fourth starters in the league.

. While their own analytics department likely has models and projections for how the upcoming season could turn out, maybe these kinds of projections can get the right people riled up enough (*cough* Steven Cohen *cough*) to allow for more significant moves to happen. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. The Diamondbacks (72 wins) and Rockies (66) are again projected nonfactors in the playoff race. Atlanta Braves manager expects to have a slugger back in 2022. Host Kelsey McKinney discusses reader-submitted comedic gossip with guests, diving into the lives and decisions of complete strangers.

But still, when looking at the recently released ZiPS projections, I dont immediately want to fall off my chair from shock. You can read all about it here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/. Listen to new episodes of Borderline Salty by Pineapple Street Studios every Tuesday starting April 12. After Yates, the additions have been 39-year-old reliever Darren ODay, defensive catcher Manny Pia and reliever Jay Jackson (whos probably looking at a Triple-A Gwinnett assignment). Built Bar Also, the Nationals have Juan Soto, and that should totally count for something. But I sure would love to see him become more of a workhorse in the middle of the rotation. Follow him on Twitter at @mmusico8. If Atlanta were to bring back its longtime first baseman you know, instead of the New York Yankees or someone else one would imagine the clubs win-loss projection improves. The second-hand truth really is stranger than fiction. Pretty surprising to me. I think Fried 4.6 WAR seems a little aggressive.. What do you think of these projections? I'm sure he wouldn't expect Langeliers to be the primary catcher, and it's probably mostly a result of d'Arnaud's injury history.

But at least at this point it doesnt seem like Atlanta is playing catch up. The NL East should be improved. Second half of the season he was a top 3 pitcher in baseball. We use cookies on our websites for a number of purposes, including analytics and performance, functionality and advertising. Now Ill admit, Im a bit surprised with the table above. (For comparison, the Braves in total accrued just over 38 fWAR last year.). (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images). Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onAtlanta Braves and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. Locked On Braves - Daily Podcast On The Atlanta Braves. There will almost certainly be some regression for Riley and I think these projections are pretty indicative of the player he will be, which is still really good. The Acua Jr. homer in me says 9 fWAR though. They're only projecting 550 PA, that's a pace of 5.7 WAR which still feels a tad low but still puts him in the upper echelon in terms of projected WAR. It's more likely they'd pick someone up if he goes down (or after the lockout) but ZiPS can't project that. The Phillies are pegged for 82 wins, the Marlins for 80 and the rebuilding Nationals for 75. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Also Langeliers getting more PAs than d'Arnaud and Pia? I talked about this when discussing these ZiPS projections on Locked on Braves, but Im hoping this is the year Ian is able to prove he can throw 160-plus innings. Morning Briefing: Michael Conforto Receiving Interest From Four Teams, Mets Have Engaged Red Sox, Cubs, Others Regarding Dominic Smith, Report: Mets, Pirates Have Had Trade Conversations Around Daniel Vogelbach. In particular, ZiPS gives the pitching high marks in its forecast, as the WAR totals therein suggest something like a top 5-ish rotation and upper-third (or better) relief corps. Mike Trout While pitchers and catchers should be preparing to report shortly, MLBs lockout of the players has successfully sucked all the air out of the excitement typically associated with that. Szymborski puts a disclaimer on every article essentially saying "don't read too much into the playing time projections." That's accounting for missed time and probably a slight downgrade of performance related to coming back from the ACL injury. The number that sticks out to me with Ozzie is the OBP. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Change), You are commenting using your Twitter account. Learn more about your ad choices. With that, lets take a look at the numbers the computer spit out for several Braves players this year. **For the best user experience, we recommend disabling the Reddit redesign. His still-likely return would put a few more games between the Braves and the Mets, though that return isnt certain until theres a signed contract to that effect.. The rival Mets have had a better offseason, but the Braves are still the champs. editing out my misunderstanding of how ZiPS works, The Davidson, Elder, Muller + Strider projections have me salivating. The Mets have obviously made some improvements, the Philadelphia Phillies will be competitive, and the Miami Marlins have a fantastic young rotation. Unsurprisingly, the big contributors are Ronald Acua Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Max Fried, with above-average assistance from Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, and Austin Riley. Adam Duvall with 2 WAR in around 500 PAs; Shea Langeliers with as much WAR projected as Marcell Ozuna (1.6) in around 400 PAs for each. Im a little late, but with essentially nothing going on in the world of baseball due to a lockout, theres really no rush with these types of things. Despite another glamorous Mets offseason, the Braves should still be preseason favorites, at least until Freeman departs. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. Its surprising they project him to get so few at-bats. Steamer says 5.9 over 131 games for roughly 7.3 WAR. Too high? Mets-Related Observations From ZiPS Standings Projections.

It should be a fun season for the Braves, assuming it ever gets off the ground. After four years on the Braves beat, he's expanded his horizons and covers all sports. The Marlins, MLBs longtime punch line, seem to be building something in south Florida. The Mets could still do more, but when the first early team projections launch next week, Atlanta is likely to be the NL East favorite. And what about the whole Freddie Freeman caveat? Now, theyre ready to help others become better, smarter, happier cooks. 3 Atlanta Braves Hurt the Most by a Delayed Spring Training, Best Atlanta Braves offensive players for each decade, Atlanta Braves had better not make this PR gaffe. Itd be close to mirroring some prior one-year turnarounds in franchise history, most recently between 2014 and 2015. Part of Audacy. Another byproduct of the lockout has been the general lack of (good and/or fun) news that involves baseball. Its because theyre only predicting hell play about 130 games. And pacing the East is nonother than the Atlanta Braves, projected to finish the 2022 regular season with 90 wins. This is typically the time of year when a lot of projections for the upcoming baseball season are released. We take a look at some of the ZiPS projections for the Atlanta Braves and tell you whether or not the player or team will go over or under those projections. Considering they've got Soto and Tatis both pushing 8 WAR in their respective projections, 4.8 for Acua seems extremely light. Braves arent done, so this is all pretty irrelevant, but Im still a little surprised they think that as of now. By their projections: Maybe theyre lower on the Mets rotation than the projections say. First thing that struck me is that ZiPS seems pretty bullish on Ynoa. The Hot Stove is supposed to keep us warm during the winter months. As has become a gladdening annual tradition, Dan Szymborskis team-by-team rollout of ZiPS projections for the upcoming season has now alit on the Braves. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices, Normal Gossip delivers juicy, strange, funny, and utterly banal gossip about people youll never know and never meet. The official We Own This City podcast is produced by HBO and Pineapple Street Studios.

,

Will Be Wild is a new 8-part series about the forces that led to the January 6th insurrection and what comes next. I dont know about you, but Ive been freezing since the incredible league-wide free-agency spending spree right before the lockout went into effect. The projections will be updated again before the season obviously, since there are still many dominoes yet to fall but the system considers the Braves the favorites. Unlike most teams, the Braves would probably be just fine if they didnt sign a single additional pitcher this offseason. However, I do think hell be more of a 4 WAR player, especially if the defense continues to improve as it did in the second half of 2021. Thats some pretty incredible value grabbed up by the Mets, and yet it still isnt enough to put them ahead in the NL East projections. Not exactly your headline deals. Perhaps most surprising was FanGraphs having the Giants dip from 107 wins to an 81-81 mark. That quartet of adds right there comes out to a whopping 16.5 fWAR from the 2021 season (or an average of a little more than 4 WAR per player), and per ZiPS those four stars are projected to tally an overall mark of 11.3 WAR for the Mets this coming campaign. The bullpen also returns its key components.

His work has been featured at Bleacher Report, FanSided, numberFire, The Sports Daily, and MLB Trade Rumors. It's similar to his 2021 numbers but I think he overperformed, hope I'm wrong though. Washington underwent a teardown in July and wont be a factor in 2022, though given the teams resources and urgency to build around Juan Soto (a free agent in 2025), the Nationals probably arent planning on a lengthy rebuild. At some point this lockout will end and the Braves, along with the other 29 teams, will be forced to make their moves. Back on Monday, FanGraphs Dan Szymborski started his annual release of the latest ZiPS standings projections, beginning with the National League. Show art by Tara Jacoby. PECOTA tabbed the Mets for a 95-67 record, while FanGraphs had them at 91-71. The starter depth that the pitching development has built is incredible. For the record: FanGraphs final ZiPS preseason projections last season had the Braves at 91 wins, tied with the Mets. Relatively high marks for Kyle Wright, Bryce Elder, Kyle Muller, and Spencer Strider, each in the 1-2 win range in around 90-140 innings totaling 22-26 starts. The Freeman dilemma of course needs to be resolved, and there are plenty of other areas of the team that need attention, but all in all, the club appears to be in good shape. The only pitchers I see higher than him in ZIPs are: Cole 5.8, Bieber 5.0, Degrom 5.3, Castillo 5.0, Buehler 4.9. Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. That's cause half of his war will be from being the DH, But do they take defense into account for the pitching projections? Doing both of those and pitching as he has the last two seasons would almost certainly put him in the NL Cy Young discussion. There are some other very interesting projections for the Braves that I would encourage you to go check out at FanGraphs. Let me know in the comments below as Id love to discuss them further with you. It does, but you have to remember he's coming back from a serious injury and the projection only estimates 551 PAs from him. The Mets already have an idea of what theyll want to accomplish after the lockout. Besides Castillo (I think that one is a bit aggressive too at the moment) these higher pitchers are all top tier ACEs which Fried hasn't yet proved to be in that tier. I wonder how much of the CF WAR is Acuna's vs Pache. A lot will depend on how healthy Charlie is to begin the season and how cautious the Braves are with him. (LogOut/ I mean, the Braves have done nothing, other than a pretty savvy signing of reliever Kirby Yates, who didnt even pitch last season. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. They didn't do the BrewCrew ZIPs yet so there will be a few more to add potentially. It seems like ZiPS believes RAJ will be back to his pre-injury level once he returns being nearly a 5 WAR player in around 117 games. Los Angeles, which also has starter Clayton Kershaw and closer Kenley Jansen unsigned, likely has more moves up its sleeve. Over six episodes, host D. Watkins will share his experiences in and out of the writers’ room and speak to the people who brought this story to the screen, including executive producers George Pelecanos and David Simon, actor Jon Bernthal, actor Wunmi Mosaku, and director Reinaldo Marcus Green. While the team lost Buster Posey (retirement) and Kevin Gausman (Toronto), that seems a bit steep. Thankfully, Dan Szymborski and FanGraphs have given us something to talk about that isnt an incredibly frustrating CBA update: some standings projections! Produced by Alex Sujong Laughlin. The Brewers, ousted by the Braves in October, are just behind them with 88. (LogOut/ Here are some Mets-related thoughts and observations based on what I saw. Even without franchise player Freddie Freeman, and with all of the many moves the Mets have made so far this winter, Atlanta is still seen as the NL East favorite by ZiPS. Despite losing Scherzer to the Mets and shortstop Corey Seager to Texas the Braves wont shed a tear over that one, given Seagers postseason success against them the Dodgers are projected at an NL-best 94 wins. 2022 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. Biggest questions for second half, This Day in Braves History: Hank Aaron hits his 700th career home run. That was in 2015 when the Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games and the Chicago Cubs won 97. It projects the Braves at 90-72, winning the NL East by two games over the Mets. Thats a strong core group, and in addition, the Braves lack extreme weak spots while the outfield could use some upgrades and theres a far-too-obvious Freddie Freeman-shaped hole on the roster, the ships not really leaking in every direction or anything. Szymborski added the Mets probably underperformed last season and could catch the Braves with better fortunes in 2022. Im assuming that him only playing 48 games in 2021 is a big factor in that, but from 2014-2019 he never had fewer than 494 at-bats in a season. https://linktr.ee/normalgossip,

The official podcast of the HBO Original Limited Series, We Own This City. Its been really bad the last two years and if hes able to get it back up to .330 hell be in for a monster season. Well see how the rest of the offseason goes.