We can also control the maximum exposure to any one player customizable by position (including Captain). He is a fantastic blocker, but his mobility elicits images of a refrigerator with feet. Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+. Place your first bet up to $250 risk-free! Full terms available from Yahoo DFS. Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams ($10,800): He doesnt make a lot of sense in the Captain spot because he doesnt provide any meaningful savings off Kupp. Some correlations are fairly straightforward. With a remaining average salary of $6,520 per flex position, you will have to sacrifice another top-priced player, but theres enough value on the slate to afford Kupp in this spot. In cash games, we value safety and sure points. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. But before you write him off for your DFS lineups, understand that Burrow is most comfortable when finding Chase downfield. If you think the quarterbacks and wide receivers dominate this game, then dont go around using Sony Michel as your dart-throw play. That isnt very likely but its likelier than the field will be building for. As discussed, correlating lineups is one of the most important factors in showdown slates. He may be good for a couple of catches, but Im only using him if building a number of lineups and need to save some salary. The Rams defense is no joke as it boasts names like Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Jalen Ramsey. Enjoy! It gets your team the ball back immediately, but in a better game script than when you had it before. Check out the latestNFL Prop BetsandNFL Parlaysas well as expertNFL Underdog PicksandNFL Computer Picks. OBJ is the perfect play in this scenario. If Im a betting man, and you know I am, I expect Higbee to sit this one out or at the least only see a small handful of snaps. Setting the bounce also helps with this. Welcome to the #FAmily. McPherson has been a field goal savant this postseason, kicking four field goals in each of the Bengals three games. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. (Those percentages are way, way, higher than anybodys actual expectation, but chosen for illustration purposes.). Gambling problem? He had more than 100 yards on six catches against the Chiefs and you cant forget his run of 100-yard performances in four of five games down the stretch during the regular season. To do this, we just need to click the teams tab in our optimizer, then select the minimum and maximum members of either team to include. New players only. Its unlikely all three of them have a big game, but one or two of them should. Selecting for either team (when only two teams are available) is sufficient. (Or give ourselves exposure to a variety of scenarios.) However, having a 1% chance at getting first place to yourself generate $2,000 in expected value. Void where prohibited. Terms & conditions apply. Additionally, we can control which players we allow in the Captain spot. The wrinkle was the addition of a Captain slot, where the players salary was increased by 50% over the other five selections in flex positions. 21+. Stick to exactly what you think will happen and use players accordingly. I also want to keep open the possibility that the Bengals score an early rushing touchdown or run the ball effectively from the front. Skip him if setting just one or two lineups, but you multi-entry folks shouldnt completely ignore him. Id leave the defenses as an option here, though. Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free! The Bengals dont make it to the Super Bowl without the confidence and subtle swagger of Burrow. The field is fairly sharp about which players and positions correlate. Burrow loves to attack the middle of the field early on in the game, and he not only uses it to move the chains but also to set up the outside passes downfield. Please gamble responsibly. Stafford has a penchant for throwing touchdowns to his opponents, leading the league in pick-sixes the past two seasons. He has a big leg and enough swagger to rival that of his quarterback. However, its just that a tool. Once he gets the ball out in space, he can rip off chunks of yardage and Im banking on it playing the over on his 25.5 receiving yards prop. Quarterbacks correlate with the opposing quarterback at a higher rate than any position other than their own top receiver. The field feels far more comfortable with balanced builds with three members from either team. These arent intended to be used for all of your lineups, but mixing them into a certain percentage can be valuable. Therefore, going in the other direction can help boost your chances of a unique lineup and your expected ROI. Im fine with either of them in the captain spot as well. Ive set both the Rams and the Bengals limits, but thats not actually necessary. Generally, finding contrarian lineups is more valuable than better lineups in terms of our profit over time in large contests. It does feel like a Mixon game, as the Bengals will probably lean on the running game to keep the defense from locking in on Joe Burrow. And above all else, have some fun. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups. T&C's Apply. I wouldnt utilize either of these correlations for the bulk of my lineups but toy around with using them or other correlations like them for a small sample and see what the optimizer produces. While this was focused on the Bengals winning the game, we could tweak them based on how we think this game will play out. Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise Nation. He has thrown for at least 335 yards in each of his last two playoff games, he had seven 300-yard efforts during the regular season and he has thrown for no fewer than two touchdowns in nine of his last 10 games. Welcome to the #Family.

Mixon has had a solid postseason so far, so hes proven he can handle the moment, and he offers a bit of salary relief, as well. Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). Fantasy football injury outlook: Odell Beckham Jr. Fantasy football draft strategy tips and advice, General Fantasy Football Analysis, Tips, Strategy and Advice, Fantasy football injury outlook: WR Tee Higgins, Bengals, Fantasy football injury outlook: WR Jameson Williams, Lions, 2022 NFL Draft: Day 3 fantasy football recap, 2022 NFL Draft: Day 2 fantasy football recap, 2022 NFL Draft: Day 1 fantasy football recap, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. When can fantasy football owners expect Williams debut? If people are nervous about Ramsey, Chase could end up a fantastic contrarian play. If youre building multiple lineups, then you may want to splash in a little bit of Jefferson to be contrarian. In 2018 for Super Bowl 52, DraftKings began offering a way for its Daily Fantasy users to take part in the Super Bowl frenzy by offering a single-game Showdown slate, with participants filling out a six-man lineup with the traditional salary cap of $50,000. We still have to make decisions. Los Angeles has a fairly concentrated passing attack. That will likely send Burrow looking elsewhere to move the ball in the air, and Higgins is the main alternative target, especially given the uncertain status of tight end C.J. This is really not for the faint of heart, but there is definitely logic behind making this play. The bounce cuts a players projections by a given percentage each time they appear in a lineup. Since Odell Beckham jr. joined the team, he and Cooper Kupp have accounted for 44% of the Rams targets and two-thirds of the passing touchdowns thrown by Matthew Stafford. Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account. 21+ (18+ WY). Its a balancing act between the two critical factors that need to be adjusted based on your goals. Generally speaking, its OK to eliminate kickers and defenses from captain consideration. Therefore, well have a rule to include one of the Joes quarterback Joe Burrow or running back Joe Mixon as well. Gambling problem?

They each have a specific scenario in mind and would likely be profitable if that scenario played out. With Van Jeffersons knee still seemingly an issue, Blanton could be the DFS surprise no one was expecting but everyone loves. Now that weve settled in on a Bengals-heavy approach lets set some player groups. Its still profitable to build around onslaught style lineups in showdown contests. When Chase is covered, we have seen Burrow turn to Higgins for some outstanding performances. My favorite for Showdowns is the maximum salary cap setting. If you think hes McVays secret weapon this week, get him in there! The field generally pairs Captain wideouts with their quarterback for a good reason. Therefore, Stafford will still be paired with one of Kupp or Beckham when we include the Bengals defense. If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose! The best wide receiver in the regular season has actually stepped his fantasy game up in the first two rounds of the playoffs, with 35.3 points against the Buccaneers and 40 in the NFC Championship Game. Weve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a $1,000,000 winner on FanDuel, as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins.

The Bengals secondary has looked good here in the playoffs, but stopping Stafford and his weapons is going to be a tall order. We know Burrow likes to use him to attack the middle, but without having practiced at all these last two weeks, its a risk. If your format allows you to use a team-defense, the Rams should make for a strong play no matter the outcome of the game. On the Bengals side, its likely that the Bengals built their lead through the air. I expect Chase to see a lot of Jalen Ramsey in this matchup and when he isnt dealing with the all-pro cornerback, he is likely to be in bracket-coverage. This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. For those who havent yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. He has 15, 18 and 15 DraftKings points in those three games and he costs pennies in the Captain spot, allowing for virtually any combination of stars in the flex positions. They recover each time they arent, but this helps to diversify.

Boyd just might be my favorite player to use this week and he becomes an even bigger must-use if tight end C.J. While most people are rightfully staring at the receivers in this game, Akers cannot be forgotten especially not against a Bengals team that ranked 24th in DVOA against the run this season. Even at his price, he will almost certainly be the highest own player and Captain. But like the salary, the Captain slots scoring output was also boosted by 50%, adding a new wrinkle into the strategy of filling out a lineup. T&C's apply. Mixon may find it tough to gain yards rushing, but I love him in the Super Bowl as a pass-catcher. Hell have to throw away from wherever Jalen Ramsey is on the field which may make it tough for him to find JaMarr Chase, but we have seen him excel using just Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They rank 31st in adjusted sack rate. Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit, DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total, Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+. The two most important factors in building +EV Showdown lineups are correlationsand uniqueness. As much as I love Uzomah, Im a little hesitant this week due to his knee injury. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($14,400): Against most other teams, JaMarr Chase would be as close to a no-brainer Captain play as Kupp, but Chase is going to have to deal with Jalen Ramsey and that is not an assignment that works in his favor, not to mention asking a rookie to deliver in a high-pressure spot. NFL DFS Super Bowl showdown lineup advice: Rams vs Bengals.

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit, Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200, If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300. Simply lowering this from 100% gives us a huge edge in building unique lineups leaving salary on the table is a great way to get unique builds. RELATED: 2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets to Target. By: Cory Bonini. This is less the case in smaller contests but still important given the top-heavy nature of most tournament payouts.